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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."