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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still